Publication date: 2016

DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2016.07.449

Objectives: The high prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) needs mortality risk assessment also on the outhospital level to stratify the mortality risk of patients. Aim: To create a simple risk-scale calculator for patients with ACS. Methods: In the retrospective register, 1000 medical records of patients with ACS were analyzed. Patients were divided into the group 1 (survivors) and group 2 (nonsurvivors). Firstly, the risk factor were evaluated using the binary model, secondly the multifactor (9 factors) mathematical model and computer program “Kardiorisk” of mortality risk prediction was constructed and thirdly the computer risk assessment model was tested on 50 patients with ACS. Results: The following risk factors were analyzed: heart rate (HR), age, gender, myocardial infarction (MI) in the past, arrhythmias. The highest impact on mortality had ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, age, HR and MI. The multifactor regression model based the was created and showed high likehood ratio and accuracy. Then the computer program based on 9 risk factors was constructed in which the output data was the mortality risk ranging from 0 to 1 (min-max). The program was tested in 50 patients with ACS (25 non- and 25 survivors) and 14 survivors showed low mortality risk, 5 – moderate and 6 – high. All nonsurvivors had the highest risk. Thus, the simple risk stratification model showed 80% sensitivity and 100% specificity.

Тип: Article